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Selling Pressure Rises on Latam FX, USDMXN Testing 200DMA / 38.2% Fibo Resistance

MEXICO
  • Broad Dollar strength has been weighing on EM FX, with selling pressure rising in Latam currencies despite central banks extending their tightening cycle to continue their ‘fight’ against inflation.
  • Following USDBRL breakout above its key 200DMA resistance this week, USDMXN has been testing a key resistance zone at 20.4280 – 20.4610 (200DMA and 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 19.4140 – 22.1560 range).
  • A break above that level would open the door for a move up to 20.7010.
  • Last month, we saw that Banxico accelerated the pace of its tightening cycle by hiking its policy rate by 75bps to 7.75%, its highest level since October 2019.
  • The decision was unanimous and resulted from the Fed’s repricing in the FFR rate following the positive surprise in inflation.

Source: Bloomberg

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