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Sep'23 BAX Future Back At Initial Post-CPI Level

CANADA
  • BAX futures are holding onto a sizeable rally for the day, led by the Sep’23 with yields -8bp and even with the front Jun’23 yield -4bp. It’s come with the intraday rally in US rates, after the combination of debt talk impasse headlines, Fed Chair Powell not using the panel discussion to tow a more hawkish line and Yellen on potential further bank mergers.
  • At 94.92, the Sep’23 is back near levels seen after Tuesday’s CPI initial reaction and has pushed through the close post-CPI (94.87) after BAX futures continued to push lower on the day.
  • The BAM3/Z3 spread widens 3bps to -0.04 having come close to a rare (by recent standards) positive reading with yesterday’s close of -0.01.
  • June OIS pricing has shifted from ~1/3 to more like 1/4 odds of a 25bp hike, whilst Scotia late yesterday called for a June 25bp hike in a move seen as insurance against inflation as their model doesn’t indicate the need for higher rates.


Sep'23 BAX futureSource: Bloomberg

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