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Sept Flash HICP Tracking Well Below Expectations

EUROZONE

Eurozone HICP is tracking well below what was expected coming into the week - In-line figures for Portugal (no consensus) and Italy (5.4% Y/Y expected) would put Euro-area HICP at 4.3% Y/Y vs the 4.5% consensus coming into the week.

  • With the Netherlands (-0.3% Y/Y) and France (an unexpected deceleration to 5.6% y/y from 5.7% in Aug vs the 5.9% expected) on the soft side this morning, adding to Germany and Spain yesterday, we now have 75% of the HICP basket having reported.
  • Core HICP (4.8% Y/Y expected) looks to be on the soft side given what we've seen for underlying national CPI so far, at 4.6-4.7%.

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