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Sept. FOMC Minutes Preview: Focus On Divisions (2/2)

FED
  • How divided were members over the econ outlook? Nomura notes that public remarks since then have "revealed a significant amount of variation across participants in terms of the economic outlook. This variation helps explain, to some extent, the difficulty the FOMC has experienced in forging longer-term policy."
  • What fiscal assumptions went into the upgraded econ projections? Virtually all public FOMC members' comments have pointed to downside risks to the outlook from a failure for the federal government to pass stimulus soon (StL's Bullard has been one exception). This will get extra attention esp given the events of the last 24 hours.
  • On that front, what would be the threshold for new Fed action, and is there any urgency to adopt further policy shifts (i.e. on asset purchases)? Public comments by participants before and after the meeting suggest little urgency, pending more clarity on the outlook - though moving down the curve is clearly a tool in the box (Cleveland's Mester reminded of this Monday, saying could "imagine wanting to shift to longer-term Treasuries" if more accommodation required.)
  • Overall, as Citi puts it, "the overall dovish messaging – which Powell maintained yesterday – is likely to persist and is unlikely to be a major market mover".
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