Free Trial

September CPI Preview

SWEDEN

This morning (0700 BST; 0800 CET) sees the release of Swedish September CPI.

  • Consensus sees CPIF at 3.7% Y/Y (vs 4.7% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs -0.1% prior). CPIF ex-energy is expected at 6.7% Y/Y (vs 7.2% prior) and 0.3% M/M (vs -0.3% prior).
  • In the September monetary policy report, the Riksbank saw CPIF at 3.75% Y/Y and CPIF ex-energy at 6.57% Y/Y.
  • The Riksbank are data dependent ahead of the 23 November rate decision (but have indicated a hawkish bias in recent communications) and will be most interested in the pace of services inflation (September services CPI was 7.0%).
  • This month, the fall in headline is expected to be driven by electricity prices.
  • Note that before the November decision, there will still be one more inflation print for October (released on 14 November). Unless the data surprises significantly in either direction, it probably won't be enough to convince members of the Executive Board into taking more defined hike/hold stances.
  • Please see this link for a summary of a number of sell-side previews we have seen.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.