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September XpertHR Median pay awards rise


September XpertHR Median pay awards rise, but remains below +6.0% H1-2023 trend:

  • XpertHR data showed median basic pay awarded was +5.4% (vs +5.0% prior) in the three months to the end of September 2023, below the +6.0% median that settlements have stood for the majority of the year thus far, but an uptick that will be slightly concerning to both the MPC and the wider market.
  • The fall in pay settlements relative to earlier in the year, reflects a downward trend in measures of inflation.
  • Although, public sector pay settlements are at their highest since 1992 at +6.1% Y/Y.
  • Whilst this data suggests a slowdown in overall settlements, ONS data remains high and well-above survey data figures, with headline AWE at +8.1% 3M/3M Y/Y in August, with increasing comments from MPC members suggesting that the official data is perhaps exaggerating wage growth.
  • XpertHR forecast median pay awards to stand at +5.0%Y/Y at the end of September 2024, slightly lower than current level of +6.0%Y/Y as at the end of September 2023.
  • XpertHR's Attwood said: ' After a year of strong pay growth driven by a tight labour market, signs of a cooling market are beginning to emerge'.

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