Free Trial

Sequential SA Inflation Jumps In January On VAT-Driven Services

GERMAN DATA

The Bundesbank's estimate of seasonally-adjusted January CPI released this afternoon shows further progress on manufactured goods disinflation, but a 2nd consecutive sequential uptick in services inflation.

  • Overall core inflation (CPI ex-energy/food) increased to 0.35% M/M (4.33% annualized, and the second consecutive incline), up from 0.18% M/M in December.
  • Services inflation drove the acceleration, coming in at 0.54% M/M (vs 0.18% in Dec), above the trailing 12 month average of 0.28%, and the highest since November 2022. However, the increase will have been at least partly due to January's restaurant VAT increase.
  • Conversely, manufactured goods ex-energy/food inflation came in softer at 0.09% M/M (vs 0.17% in Dec), the slowest pace since August 2021.
  • Given the impact of the VAT increase, February's data will provide a better signal as to what extent elevated services inflation is due to general stickiness.

MNI, Destatis

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.