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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessService CPI Strength Dials Up Pain For Fed
- Further to the earlier bullet on the strength behind CPI (here), the strength in services is particularly eye-catching and has helped push the implied terminal rate up more than 25bps to 4.25% with the Mar’23 FOMC.
- The heavily-weighted OER category (23.7% of total CPI basket) accelerated to a new cycle, and in turn multi-decade, high of 0.71% M/M (from 0.63) whilst rents were close to the June high of 0.78 with 0.74% (from 0.70), contrary to some expectations of a circa 0.1pp cooling.
- The well-known persistence of shelter sees it carry particular prominence in Fed thinking but so too will strength in other core services such as the also fairly heavily-weighted medical care services (6.8% weight vs 7.2% for primary rents), with a post-pandemic high of 0.77% and a three month run rate of 7.7% annualized.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.