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Service CPI Strength Dials Up Pain For Fed

US DATA
  • Further to the earlier bullet on the strength behind CPI (here), the strength in services is particularly eye-catching and has helped push the implied terminal rate up more than 25bps to 4.25% with the Mar’23 FOMC.
  • The heavily-weighted OER category (23.7% of total CPI basket) accelerated to a new cycle, and in turn multi-decade, high of 0.71% M/M (from 0.63) whilst rents were close to the June high of 0.78 with 0.74% (from 0.70), contrary to some expectations of a circa 0.1pp cooling.
  • The well-known persistence of shelter sees it carry particular prominence in Fed thinking but so too will strength in other core services such as the also fairly heavily-weighted medical care services (6.8% weight vs 7.2% for primary rents), with a post-pandemic high of 0.77% and a three month run rate of 7.7% annualized.

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