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Widespread Strength Behind Core CPI Beat

US DATA
  • Core CPI came in at +0.57% M/M vs consensus +0.3% M/M, led by both a rebound in core services (+0.58% M/M, +0.35% prior) and a doubling in the rate of core goods(+0.46% M/M vs +0.23% prior).
  • Shelter plays a large role in the surprise with no sign of the modest slowdown expected: third consecutive month of +0.7% M/M primary rents (+0.74%) and OER hit a new cycle high of +0.71%.
  • It’s not all shelter-driven though, with medical care services accelerating to a new cycle high of 0.77% M/M.
  • From goods, apparel also of note, with a ‘soft’ 0.21% M/M but no sign of a decline on margins getting squeezed.
  • Pandemic categories are really flattening out - airfares contracted 4.6% M/M (broadly expected) but Lodging, New/Used Vehicles, and Car/Truck Rental changes all within +/-1pp (and used car prices holding up better than expected).

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