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Services PMI Boost Signals No Relief for Sticky Services Inflation

UK DATA
MNI (London)

UK APR FLASH MANUF PMI 46.6 (FCST 48.4); MAR 47.9

UK APR FLASH SERVICES PMI 54.9 (FCST 52.8); MAR 52.9

  • Similarly to the eurozone flash PMIs, the UK April PMI data signalled stronger service sector growth (up 2 points at 54.9) , whilst manufacturing weakened further (down 1.3 points at 46.6). This divergence represented a 12-month high for services, and a 4-month low in manufacturing.
  • Services demand rose, with new orders reaching a 13-month high. Manufacturing demand declined, with firms destocking as they grappled with persistently high energy costs and soft consumer demand.
  • Prices eased as input inflation cooled to the softest on over two years on the back of softer energy costs and supply constraints. Firms again flagged strengthening wage inflation as a key concern, leading to output charge increases, notably in services.
  • Job creation picked up, driven by service-sector hires.
  • According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global: "Flash PMI surveys signalled an acceleration of economic growth to the fastest for a year in April, building on a modest return to growth in the first quarter of the year. the latest PMI reading broadly indicative of GDP rising at a robust quarterly rate of 0.4%." (0.4% growth in Q1 is in line with the BOE's expectations).
  • The PMI's forward-looking the evidence of further service price inflation and pressure on wages adds to fuel for a 25bp hike at the upcoming May 11 meet.

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