US DATA
The S&P Global US composite PMI surprisingly fell in the January flash release to its lowest since April after the 55.4 in December marked a 32-month high. However, firms' expectations of output over the coming year remain strong looking at policies under the second Trump administration and inflationary pressures saw a four-month high which helped limit the dovish reaction from the headline services miss.
- Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 (cons 49.8) after 49.4, above the 50 breakeven level (just) for the first time in six months.
- Services PMI: 52.8 (cons 56.5) after 56.8, lowest since April.
- Composite PMI: 52.4 (cons 55.6) after 55.4.
- From the press release (in full here): “Firms' expectations of output in the coming year meanwhile continued to run at a level not surpassed since May 2022, buoyed by optimism about the new government's policies, encouraging firms to take on staff at the steepest rate for two-and-a-half years."
- "However, inflationary pressures intensified to a four-month high, with both input costs and selling prices rising at increased rates across both manufacturing and services."
- Data were collected Jan 09-23 so would have started to capture the first few days of the second Trump administration following the inauguration on Jan 20.
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