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SF Fed: Household Inflation Expectations Influenced By Press

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  • SF Fed research finds that “the increased volume and negativity of inflation news explains one-fourth of the widening gap between household expectations and professional forecasts from Jun 2021-22.” Full note here:
  • “The remainder, according to this simple regression model, can be attributed to increases in gas and food prices and unobserved factors.”
  • Focusing on 1-year ahead inflation, it comes at a time that the latest estimate from the U.Mich has increased 40bps over the past two months to 5.1% in the preliminary Nov release, closer to the Mar/Apr’22 high of 5.4%.

Source: San Francisco Fed

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  • SF Fed research finds that “the increased volume and negativity of inflation news explains one-fourth of the widening gap between household expectations and professional forecasts from Jun 2021-22.” Full note here:
  • “The remainder, according to this simple regression model, can be attributed to increases in gas and food prices and unobserved factors.”
  • Focusing on 1-year ahead inflation, it comes at a time that the latest estimate from the U.Mich has increased 40bps over the past two months to 5.1% in the preliminary Nov release, closer to the Mar/Apr’22 high of 5.4%.

Source: San Francisco Fed