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SGD Strengthens But USD/SGD Has Upside Risks

SGD

Singapore dollar has weakened during the Asia session, giving back some of the gains seen post-FOMC, USD/SGD last up 9 pips at 1.3409. The weakness in the greenback following a dovish Fed saw the rate drop from around 1.3480 to the 1.3400 handle. The move was not enough to push the rate outside of its recent range between its 200-day and 100-day moving average at 1.3542 and 1.3346, respectively. The rate has been within this range since March 4.

  • The rate today has dropped as far as 1.3390, just above the 38,2% retracement level of the 2021 move from low to high, next support is seen at the 100-day moving average, 1.3346, which intersects the 50% retracement level at 1.3344. On the upside resistance is seen at 1.3443, a 23.6% retracement.
  • Fig 1: USD/SGD Long Term With Moving Averages

Source: MNI/Bloomberg


  • Fig. 2: USD/SGD Short Term With Fibonacci Levels

Source: MNI/Bloomberg


  • Still, there appear to be upside risks to USD/SGD, forward points up to 1-year are still just shy of the highest levels since 2016 having fallen slightly, while SGD liquidity also appears to be tight. 6-month swaps continue to gain, last at 0.3197%, making new highs for 2021 and hitting the highest level since May 2020.

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