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AUSSIE BONDS: Sharply Richer Despite Jobs Beat, US Claims & Retail Sales Due

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM +9.0 & XM +11.0) remain sharply richer despite today’s stronger-than-expected December Employment Report. 

  • Employment growth exceeded expectations, with a net increase of +56.3k jobs. However, the gain was entirely driven by part-time employment (+80k), while full-time jobs declined by -23.7k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%, aligning with forecasts.
  • Economists say there is no urgency for the RBA to deliver a pre-election cash rate cut in February after a bumper jobs report showed the labour market continued to defy expectations of a looming slowdown. (See AFR link)
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s strong post-CPI rally. Weekly Jobless Claims and Retail Sales highlight today’s US calendar.
  • Cash ACGBs are 8-11bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 7-9bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +10.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 8bps softer across meetings today, with late 2025 leading. A 25bp rate cut is fully priced for April (106%), with the probability of a February cut at 69% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty apart from the AOFM's planned sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond.
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ACGBs (YM +9.0 & XM +11.0) remain sharply richer despite today’s stronger-than-expected December Employment Report. 

  • Employment growth exceeded expectations, with a net increase of +56.3k jobs. However, the gain was entirely driven by part-time employment (+80k), while full-time jobs declined by -23.7k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%, aligning with forecasts.
  • Economists say there is no urgency for the RBA to deliver a pre-election cash rate cut in February after a bumper jobs report showed the labour market continued to defy expectations of a looming slowdown. (See AFR link)
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s strong post-CPI rally. Weekly Jobless Claims and Retail Sales highlight today’s US calendar.
  • Cash ACGBs are 8-11bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 7-9bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +10.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 8bps softer across meetings today, with late 2025 leading. A 25bp rate cut is fully priced for April (106%), with the probability of a February cut at 69% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty apart from the AOFM's planned sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond.