Shipping Risks Remain as European Gas Ticks Higher

Front month TTF has ticked higher Thursday with risks to LNG supplies from the Red Sea disruption weighed against healthy near-term supplies and muted European demand.

• TTF JAN 24 up 4.5% at 35.02€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 4.1% at 35.13€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 2.6% at 39.8€/MWh
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to continue until the end of December while Germany is expected to see record wind power output on Thursday.
• Shipping companies continue to see little detail over the US task force’s plan to secure the Red Sea from attacks, as some companies continue to reroute voyages, according to Reuters.
• Few practical details are known about the operation, or whether it will directly engage if faced with further armed attacks at sea.
• LNG flows to Northwest Europe on Dec. 19 were 269.40 mcm/d - in line with the 30-day average.
• Norwegian nominated flows to the UK and Northwest Europe terminals at 351.90 mcm/d vs 5-day moving avg 356.52 mcm/d: Gassco
• European gas storage was 88% full on Dec. 19 vs the 5-yr seasonal norm of 77% for this time of year: GIE
• Physical flow of 248.69 mcm entering the UK network is 3.59 mcm less than forecast system demand for today: National Grid