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MIDEAST: Shipping World Watches For Houthi Reaction To Gaza Ceasefire

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The emerging Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal - yet to be confirmed by the Israeli gov't - will not only be watched in the context of security in Israel and the Palestinian territories, but also for the potential impact on global shipping flows, supply chains, and inflationary pressures. Since the outbreak of the conflict following the Hamas attacks of 7 Oct 2023, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have engaged in a significant campaign of attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, backed by Iran as part of its 'axis of resistance', have previously said the attacks would continue as long as Israeli forces remain in Gaza. 

  • The impact on shipping and commercial supply chains has been significant, with cargoes forced to travel via the Cape of Good Hope rather than the Suez Canal, adding weeks to transit. This has pushed up costs and contributed to stubbornly high inflationary pressures.
  • Shipping news outlet gCaptain reports comments from a Houthi spox stating that the group's attacks will only halt when "all military operations by the IDF are stopped, the siege on Gaza is lifted, humanitarian aid is allowed to flow freely, occupied territories in the Gaza Strip are withdrawn, and all military actions by the UK, US, and Israel in Yemen are ended.”
  • While there have been no attacks on Red Sea shipping in 2025 so far, it is unlikely that operators will send vessels back to these waters in significant numbers until the ceasefire is well established (potentially into the second or third phases of the deal). 

 

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The emerging Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal - yet to be confirmed by the Israeli gov't - will not only be watched in the context of security in Israel and the Palestinian territories, but also for the potential impact on global shipping flows, supply chains, and inflationary pressures. Since the outbreak of the conflict following the Hamas attacks of 7 Oct 2023, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have engaged in a significant campaign of attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, backed by Iran as part of its 'axis of resistance', have previously said the attacks would continue as long as Israeli forces remain in Gaza. 

  • The impact on shipping and commercial supply chains has been significant, with cargoes forced to travel via the Cape of Good Hope rather than the Suez Canal, adding weeks to transit. This has pushed up costs and contributed to stubbornly high inflationary pressures.
  • Shipping news outlet gCaptain reports comments from a Houthi spox stating that the group's attacks will only halt when "all military operations by the IDF are stopped, the siege on Gaza is lifted, humanitarian aid is allowed to flow freely, occupied territories in the Gaza Strip are withdrawn, and all military actions by the UK, US, and Israel in Yemen are ended.”
  • While there have been no attacks on Red Sea shipping in 2025 so far, it is unlikely that operators will send vessels back to these waters in significant numbers until the ceasefire is well established (potentially into the second or third phases of the deal).