MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Short End Extends Lows Ahead Fri's March Employment Data

US TSYS
  • Front month Jun'23 Treasury futures trading mildly weaker after quickly reversing the knee-jerk bid anticipated in the event of a large claims up-revision.
  • Tsy futures initially gapped higher (10s 116-30 high) following weekly claims: 18k drop to 228k vs. 200k est, prior revision to 246k, but quickly retraced to opening levels: 10s 116-23.5 (+5), 10Y yield 3.2662%.
  • Yield curves have traded in a wide range today, well off early "highs" (2s10s -42.798 high), curves reversed course as the short end extended lows in the second half: 2s10s -52.850 at the moment (-4.710).
  • Implied rate hikes gained slightly while rate cuts through year end have subsequently pared back from this morning's "highs".
  • Fed funds implied hike for May'23 is currently at 12.6bp vs. 11.1bp, Jun'23 +8.1bp vs. 5.6bp cumulative at 4.893%.
  • Projected rate cuts later in the year continue to recede from Wednesday's post-ADP levels: Sep'23 cumulative -33.3bp vs -36.6bp earlier to 4.490%, to -69.9bp vs. -75.5bp for Dec'23 (-84.9bp Wed) at 4.119.
  • Focus turns to Friday's employment data for March at 0830ET. Reminder: Early close tomorrow in observance of Good Friday: 1100ET, Globex close at 1115ET. Full session on Monday. Side note: UK markets closed Friday and Monday.
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