MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, January 13

MNI BRIEF: China December Vehicle Sales Up 10.5%

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Add Forex Reserves Allocation In HK - Pan

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Oil Imports Down 1.9%

CHINA DEC EXPORTS +10.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +7.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1885 Mon; -2.21% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Exports Grow 5.9% Y/Y

CHINA 2024 EXPORTS +7.1% IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

USDA: CORN STOCKS 12,074M BSL ON JAN 1

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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AUSSIE BONDS: Short End Leads Market Lower, US CPI On Wed & AU Jobs On Thu

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM -15.0 & XM -10.0) are sharply weaker and hovering near Sydney session cheaps.

  • Outside of the previously outlined MI Inflation Index and ANZ-Indeed job advertisements, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • There have been no cash dealings in US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a holiday. TYH5 is, however, weaker at 107-07+, -0-05 from NY closing levels. This week, CPI and PPI inflation measures are on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The scheduled Fed speaker docket is muted with the Fed Blackout on Friday.
  • Cash ACGBs are 10-14bps cheaper, led by the short end.
  • Swap rates are 9-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing -5 to -15.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-16bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is now less than fully priced for April (97%), with the probability of a February cut at 65% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer Confidence data.
  • AOFM Bond issuance will resume this week, with A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond to be sold on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond to be sold on Friday. 
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ACGBs (YM -15.0 & XM -10.0) are sharply weaker and hovering near Sydney session cheaps.

  • Outside of the previously outlined MI Inflation Index and ANZ-Indeed job advertisements, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • There have been no cash dealings in US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a holiday. TYH5 is, however, weaker at 107-07+, -0-05 from NY closing levels. This week, CPI and PPI inflation measures are on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The scheduled Fed speaker docket is muted with the Fed Blackout on Friday.
  • Cash ACGBs are 10-14bps cheaper, led by the short end.
  • Swap rates are 9-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing -5 to -15.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-16bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is now less than fully priced for April (97%), with the probability of a February cut at 65% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer Confidence data.
  • AOFM Bond issuance will resume this week, with A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond to be sold on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond to be sold on Friday.