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Short End Set For Biggest Rally Since Early May

SCHATZ
The short end is easily outperforming on the German curve, with 2Y Schatz yields dropping 12.5bp to 3.06%, on course for their biggest daily drop since the ECB decision on May 4th. (Recall at that meeting, Bunds rallied on the ECB decision, with the 25bp hike vs some lingering expectations of 50bp, and a lack of firm commitment to further tightening in the statement.)
  • With ECB hike pricing falling sharply and US Fed terminal relatively steady, 2Y German yields have now fallen 14bp vs US counterparts since Jul 13 (yield advantage now 162bp in the US's favor, vs 148bp last week).
  • Latest German yields: The 2-Yr yield is down 12.5bps at 3.064%, 5-Yr is down 8.9bps at 2.49%, 10-Yr is down 7.4bps at 2.406%, and 30-Yr is down 5.3bps at 2.453%.

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