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Free AccessFalling Breakevens Help Cap Yield Gains
Treasuries traded weaker Friday, with a renewed rise in short-end yields bear flattening the curve.
- In a week dominated by big swings in Treasury yields and big equity declines, oil stole the show Friday, with WTI dropping 6.8% on the session.
- This helped 5Y and 10Y TIPS-implied breakevens fall to the lowest levels since February. In turn, that helped cap yield gains in an otherwise risk-on session, with the Nasdaq rallying in the afternoon.
- The 2-Yr yield is up 5.8bps at 3.1512%, 5-Yr is up 4.2bps at 3.326%, 10-Yr is up 2.9bps at 3.2237%, and 30-Yr is up 3.4bps at 3.2812%.
- Fed communications (George, Bullard, Kashkari) generally leaned hawkish where they leaned at all (nothing new from Chair Powell), helping pull short-end yields off session lows.
- Data (industrial production, leading index) added to the recent string of concerning reports but didn't draw any market reaction.
- With a market holiday Monday, attention will swiftly turn to Powell's congressional testimony next Weds and Thurs.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.