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Short Term Path Of Least Resistance Lower For USDJPY

JPY
  • In very similar price action to Monday, USDJPY (-0.7%) has shrugged off an intra-day bounce and having grinded lower throughout US trade, looks set to close towards session lows once more. The sharp move lower away from notable pivot resistance at 145.00 appears to have transitioned the short-term path of least resistance from higher to lower.
  • USDJPY maintains a bearish technical tone having breached the 20-day EMA and cleared support at 142.29, the former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low. Attention is now on support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 140.34. A clear break of this average would strengthen bearish conditions, opening 139.85, the Jun 16 low & 50-day simple MA. Below here, the target would be 139.18, the 38.2% retracement of the Mar 24 - Jun 30 bull leg. Initial resistance moves down to 143.01, Monday’s high.
  • NZDJPY screens as one of the weakest pairs on the board, declining 1.03% on Tuesday and extending its losing streak to 5 days. This price action comes ahead of the RBNZ decision overnight where the central bank is likely to remain on hold for the first time since August 2021.
  • Naturally, the focus for yields/the Yen will be Wednesday’s US inflation data where headline CPI is anticipated to decrease by 0.9 percentage points to reach 3.1% Y/y, the lowest level since March 2021. Domestically, there are no tier-one data releases with Japan PPI and core machine orders on the docket overnight.

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