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Shrugging Off Stimulus News, With Retail Sales/IP Data Eyed


A fairly underwhelming response to the Biden $1.9trn stimulus unveiling has seen Treasuries claw back late Thurs losses and equities on the back foot. Busy data slate ahead of the long weekend.

  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) up 4.5/32 at 136-22.5 (L: 136-16.5 / H: 136-25.5), trading sideways after an initial jump in early Asia-Pac trade. All told, though, light volumes (~230k).
  • The pre-Biden sell-off reversed overnight partly on the "sell the rumor, buy the fact" effect, but also on speculation of potential changes to/watering down of the proposal as it goes through Congress.
  • Curve bull flattening; the 2-Yr yield is flat at 0.1391%, 5-Yr is down 1.4bps at 0.4694%, 10-Yr is down 2bps at 1.109%, and 30-Yr is down 2.1bps at 1.8514%.
  • Dec retail sales highlights the data docket at 0830ET (same time sees Jan Empire Manufacturing and Dec PPI). At 0915ET we get the Dec industrial production release, with prelim UMich sentiment rounding off the calendar at 1000ET.
  • Minn's Kashkari (1130ET) is the final scheduled Fed speaker before pre-FOMC blackout period.
  • No supply. NY Fed buys ~$12.825B of 0-2.25Y Tsys.
  • Reminder that Monday is a US market holiday (MLK Day).

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