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Free AccessSigns Of Long End Demand Facilitate Twist Flattening
TYH2 flat at the re-open, dealing around late NY levels, +0-02+ at 128-19+.
- Hawkish Fed re-pricing weighed on the front end and belly of the curve on Thursday. Benchmarks out to 10s cheapened by 1.5-5.0bp come the close of NY dealing as a result, with shorter dated paper leading the way lower. Meanwhile, 20s and 30s richened by 1-2bp. 10s briefly showed above 1.75% in yield terms for the first time since April ’21, before backing off, with some long end demand becoming evident as 10s crossed that level & 30-Year yields neared 2.15%. This resulted in a twist flattening dynamic.
- Hawkish Fedspeak from Bullard re: balance sheet normalisation failed to provide much, if any notable impetus, given the hawkish repricing witnessed since the release of the FOMC’s Dec meeting minutes.
- $IG issuance remained brisk, although was less seemingly less meaningful for Tsy price action when compared to earlier in the week.
- Flow of note included an FV block sale (-12,689) during the NY morning, while late trade saw a UXY block sale (-3.8K).
- Focus is squarely on Friday’s NFP report, with the recent hawkish repricing in the front end of the Tsy curve & STIRs providing the potential for increased volatility if the dataset disappoints. Elsewhere, Fedspeak will come from ’24 voters Bostic & Daly.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.