Situation On Lebanese Border Appears To Recede From All-Out War

A major escalation in drone, rocket, and missile exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah along the Lebanese border on 25 August risked the outbreak of a potentially devastating all-out war between the two sides. However, the subsequent lull has raisedhopes among observers that the strikes could prove the culmination of weeks of heightened tensions. As WaPo reports, some observers believe "that the potentially disastrous attacks were, instead, a face-saving moment — allowing each of the combatants to step back from the edge of a wider conflict. The limited morning escalation [...] has allowed Hezbollah to claim vengeance and Israel to project confidence in its security apparatus."

• The killings of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh in July had seen Iran and its proxies vow retaliation against Israel. The targeting of civilian centres or the use of the thousands of rockets and missiles Hezbollah is believed to possess could have tipped the Levant into a conflict much like the devastating Israel-Lebanon war of 2006.
• However, Hezbollah's targeting of numerous military sites has allowed the group to claim its retaliation. Israel can claim that its shooting down of the majority of projectiles means it has done its job in defending the country.
• While the threat is not passed - Times of Israel reports Sky News Arabia story that claims an Israeli source says "Israel is capable of launching a preemptive strike against potential threats in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, or Yemen" - the immediate risk of regional conflagration may have passed by for now.