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Sliding ZEW Expectations Point Towards Stagnation

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY APR ZEW EXPECTATIONS 4.1 (FCST 15.6); MAR 13.0

GERMANY APR ZEW CURRENT SITUATION -32.5 (FCST -40); MAR -46.5

  • ZEW German economic sentiment deteriorated for a second month in April, falling 8.9 points to +4.1, against consensus expectations of a 2.6-point uptick. Expectations took a substantial hit in April, implying that no significant improvement is anticipated for the German economy in the next six months.
  • The survey of financial market experts found increased caution regarding lending, whilst high inflation rates and interest rates continue to weigh on growth.
  • In contrast, the current situation index jumped 14 points to -32.5 in April, beating expectations albeit remaining firmly in pessimistic territory.
  • The boost to current sentiment largely signalled alleviated concerns about a possible financial market crisis, following the sharp March decline fuelled by banking-sector turbulence including the SVB collapse.
  • German Q1 flash GDP is due next week, which may well see the eurozone's largest economy dip into recession following the Q4 contraction.

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