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WTI is +$0.70 and Brent is +$1.20 at writing, operating just above two-week lows made on Tuesday.
- To recap, WTI and Brent both shed ~$7 on Tuesday to close below $100, with the move lower facilitated by elevated hope surrounding ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, as well as developments in talks for an Iranian nuclear deal. On the latter issue, Russian FM Lavrov confirmed on Tuesday that Russia has received previously requested written guarantees re: uninterrupted Russia-Iran trade and cooperation, removing a major sticking point in recent talks that the U.S. had earlier in the month labelled as “unacceptable”.
- Elsewhere, worry re: a possible economic slowdown arising from an ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in China remains elevated, with pandemic control measures estimated to apply to over 40 million people. While data released on Wednesday by the country’s National Health Commission pointed to a slowdown in freshly confirmed cases, locally transmitted infections were shown to have spread to over a dozen new provincial-level regions.
- Looking to the U.S., reports re: the latest round of weekly API inventory estimates pointed to a drawdown in gasoline inventories while there was a surprise build in U.S. crude stocks, with increases observed in Cushing hub and distillate stockpiles as well.
- From a technical perspective, both benchmarks trade below their 20-day EMAs. Support for WTI (J2) and Brent (K2) is situated at their 50-Day EMAs at ~$93.69 and $96.32 respectively, and a break below these levels will expose further support at $90.06 (Feb 23 low) for WTI, and $92.75 (Feb 25 low) for Brent.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.