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Slight Trimming Of Yesterday's Rate Path Lift Ahead Of ECI and Monthly PCE

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates have cooled overnight, helped by lower than expected regional German inflation, but still sit close to levels after yesterday’s core PCE beat having only unwound yesterday’s late second wind.
  • 22.5bp hike for Wed (unch) and cumulative 27.5bp for Jun (-1bp), before 12bp of cuts from current levels to 4.71% for Nov (-2bp) and 34bp of cuts to 4.49% for Dec (-2.5bp).
  • Ahead, March core PCE inflation which will show how the Q1 beat was distributed and the eagerly anticipated ECI for Q1 plus the MNI Chicago PMI and finalised U.Mich consumer survey after the surprise preliminary surge in near-term expectations.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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