Slightly Mixed After Today’s Domestic Data Drop

ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM +1.5) are holding slightly mixed after today’s mixed result domestic data drop. February Retail Sales printed below expectations (+0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% est.), while Private Sector Credit showed (+0.5% m/m vs. +0.4% est.). Also, Job Vacancies showed -6.1% q/q vs. a revised -0.8% prior. Earlier, Consumer Inflation Expectations eased to 4.3% in March from 4.5% prior.

• Spending remains soft looking through recent volatility and 3-month momentum continued to deteriorate and is now negative. February was boosted by Taylor Swift’s concerts which drove a 4.2% m/m and 0.5% m/m increase in clothing & footwear and restaurant & café sales respectively.
• Cash US tsys are 1-4bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after Fed Waller said the Fed should wait a "couple months" to get a better understanding of the trajectory of inflation, but he still expects the central bank to begin reducing the target range for the federal funds rate this year. (See MNI link)
• Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp higher at -22bps.
• Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower.
• Bills are -1 to -2 across the strip.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly mixed across meetings. A cumulative 38bps of easing is priced by year-end.