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Slightly Richer, Retail Sales Tomorrow, CPI Monthly On Wednesday

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ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +3.5) are richer and at/near Sydney session highs. With the domestic calendar light and cash US tsys closed for observance of the Memorial Day holiday, volumes have been light.

  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings. 6bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Retail Sales ahead of Wednesday’s CPI for April.
  • After the RBA revised up its 2024 headline and trimmed mean CPI forecasts, there is likely to be even more scrutiny of inflation data. Bloomberg consensus expects it to ease 0.1pp to 3.4% but it is worth noting that the first month of the quarter does not include updated services components, the sector the RBA is principally concerned about.
  • The AOFM also plans to sell A$150 million of 0.25% Nov-32 inflation-linked bond tomorrow.
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ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +3.5) are richer and at/near Sydney session highs. With the domestic calendar light and cash US tsys closed for observance of the Memorial Day holiday, volumes have been light.

  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings. 6bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Retail Sales ahead of Wednesday’s CPI for April.
  • After the RBA revised up its 2024 headline and trimmed mean CPI forecasts, there is likely to be even more scrutiny of inflation data. Bloomberg consensus expects it to ease 0.1pp to 3.4% but it is worth noting that the first month of the quarter does not include updated services components, the sector the RBA is principally concerned about.
  • The AOFM also plans to sell A$150 million of 0.25% Nov-32 inflation-linked bond tomorrow.