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Slightly soft labour market data; not enough to change any MPC votes this week

UK DATA
  • A downside surprise on the AWE numbers - particularly the including bonus numbers.
  • There was also notable slowdown in private sector AWE from 7.8% to 7.3% - note that the Bank's forecasts see this at 7.2% in December in their November MPR forecasts.
  • Vacancies fell again by 45k to 949k.
  • Overall though at first glance, outside of the bonus payments (that probably drove the spike lower of around 20 pips for GBPUSD on the release - the data looks soft but not a huge downside surprise - and GBPUSD is back to pre-data levels at writing).
  • This data is a bit soft at first glance, but we don't expect it to change the vote of any MPC member at this week's meeting.
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