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Small Beat For Core Durable Goods

US DATA
  • Total durable goods orders disappointed in the preliminary July release (0.0% vs cons 0.8%) but both core orders and shipments were modestly stronger than expected with small positive revisions to June.
  • Core shipments increasing 0.7% M/M (cons 0.5%) after 0.8% ties in with the July increase in industrial production (0.6%) from last week, whilst core orders increasing 0.4% after 0.9% helps push back against some of the decline in the latest manufacturing surveys.
  • The small beats for core categories help see 2Y and 10Y Tsy yields alike push 1.5-2bp in the time since the report but reaction is limited by both the size of surprise and the fact that it doesn’t help identify latest weakness in services, at least judging by the August PMI with services of 44.1 vs manufacturing of 51.3.
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