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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GREECE
The final opinion polling ahead of the 25 June general election continues to show the centre-right New Democracy (ND) led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis on course to secure a majority in the Hellenic parliament. The greatest prospect of an upset, resulting in a hung parliament, comes if minor parties that have sat below the 3% electoral threshold outperform and enter the legislature. This would dilute the number of seats assigned to the other parties post-election and could see ND's seat total decline below the 151-seat level required for a majority.
- The far-left MeRA25 of former Finance Minister Yannis Varuofakis have polled between 2.1% and 2.8% from 15-22 June, while the far-right ultranationalist Spartans' support has stood between 1.6% and 2.7% over the same period.
- The right-wing Christian fundamentalist NIKI and the far-left anti-austerity Course of Freedom (PE) look set to enter parliament according to polls. Neither crossed the threshold in the 21 May election, but are projected to win 8-13 seats each according to polls.
- Unicredit highlights the risks relating to turnout: "At the election in May, participation was at around 60%, historically low for Greek elections,[...]. Complacency on the side of ND’s supporters might result in a lower turnout at the polls. This explains why PM Mitsotakis has been so vocal in calling Greek citizens to the ballot box on Sunday. In fact, abstention could also hurt other parties, especially the main opposition SYRIZA, which lost 11pp in May compared to 2019."
- For analysis on the potential impact on Greek assets see here.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 2-Poll Moving Average (LHS) and Seat Projection (RHS)
Source: Rass, GPO, Alco, Pulse RC, MRB, Metron Analysis, Kapa Research, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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