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SNB's Weekly Deposits Update Could Garner Extra Focus Next Week

CHF
  • As has been the case across G10 FX more broadly, the USD printed new pullback lows against the EUR, JPY, GBP as well as CHF early Friday. USD/CHF's pullback from the recent high on Jun30 has now amounted to 5%, with the pair hitting the lowest levels since the breaking of the EUR/CHF peg in early 2015.
  • The SNB remain a key factor in the recent strength of CHF, with the persistent drop in weekly sight deposits data showing the bank are likely active in buying CHF to tighten financial conditions inbetween quarterly policy meetings.
  • This Monday's deposit update may garner extra focus given the run higher in spot (EUR/CHF is also lower) - and will provide markets with an insight into whether the bank are happy to continue adding to the stronger currency backdrop in light of the recent CHF rally. Data crosses at 0900 UK time Monday.
  • SARON futures continue to underpin expectations of further SNB tightening - although implied rates have pulled back since Wednesday and the easing of global CB expectations. Pricing is consistent with expectations for a further 25bps hike in September to a peak rate of 2.00%
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