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SCOTLAND

Recent opinion polling ahead of the 6 May Scottish parliament elections shows the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) on course to either just achieve or narrowly fall short of a majority at Holyrood.

  • Opinium Research, 1-6 Apr. Changes w/ 11-16 Mar:
    • Constituency: SNP: 53% (+7), Conservative: 21% (-3), Labour: 18% (-2), Liberal Democrat: 6% (=)
    • List: SNP: 44% (+2), CON: 22% (=), LAB: 17% (-2), Green: 7% (=), LDM: 5% (=), Alba: 2% (+2)
  • SavantaComRes, 2-7 Apr, Chgs. w/ Mar 5-10:
    • Constituency: SNP: 49% (+1), CON: 23% (-), LAB: 18% (-2), LDEM: 6% (-2)
    • List: SNP: 40% (-), CON: 21% (-3), LAB: 18% (-), GRN: 9% (-1), LDEM: 7% (+1), Alba: 3% (+3)
  • Based on the Opinium poll, the SNP would have a wide majority of 13 seats, with the vote shares roughly translating into 71 seats out of 130, the unionist Conservatives would be on 27 seats, centre-left Labour on 21, pro-independence Greens on 6 and centrist pro-union Liberal Democrats on 4.
  • The latest forecast from Britain Elects/New Statesman has the following seat distribution (changes from current seats in brackets): SNP: 66 (+3), CON: 24 (-7), LAB: 23 (-1), GRN: 11 (+5), LDEM: 5 (-), ALBA: 0 (-). If reflected in the result, it would give the SNP a majority of just one seat.
  • Should the SNP win an outright majority without needing support from the Greens or Alba, the political vehicle of former SNP First Minister Alex Salmond, it would increase the pressure on Westminster to grant FM Nicola Sturgeon's gov't a second independence referendum.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-0981 | tom.lake@marketnews.com
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