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SocGen: Assuming boosters are effective against Omicron 1% Bank Rate by Aug

BOE
  • “By the time of the next meeting, we expect the labour market to have strengthened further but real activity is likely to have softened because of the increased caution of the public and the latest imposition of social restrictions by the government in reaction to the increasing severity of the Omicron outbreak. However, inflation will have risen further and inflation expectations should then have remained elevated.”
  • “On the assumption that the booster programme proves effective in bringing the Omicron outbreak under control, we now expect the Bank to follow up with 25bp increases at the next three Monetary Policy Report meetings (February, May, and August) with the risk of a further 25bp in November.”
  • “At 1%, the MPC will decide whether to start active, as opposed to passive, sales to further reduce the portfolio. We think they will do so because the run-off through maturing bonds is quite small in the first year.”
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