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SocGen Expects CNB To Keep Rates Unchanged

CZECHIA
  • SocGen expects the CNB to keep its rates unchanged at the new board’s first monetary policy meeting on 4 August.
  • The three new board members (deputy governor Zamrazilova, members Kubelkova and Frait) will probably join new governor Michl and longstanding dovish member Dedek in supporting stable rates.
  • Recent statements by Zamrazilova and Frait indicated their bias toward stable rates.
  • At the same time, the CNB is likely to continue with its FX intervention.
  • However, this is likely to become increasingly difficult, given unsupportive fundamentals for the CZK and accelerating inflation.
  • Therefore, SocGen economists expect the CNB to eventually deliver a 50bp rate hike in November.
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