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SocGen Eye Slowing Public Sector Employment Growth Ahead

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Societe Generale look for NFP growth of 185k in December, remaining “healthy” but with “underlying signs of moderation”.
  • “Private sector gains are slowing much more rapidly, but government payroll gains have sped up to offset the moderation.”
  • “In Dec’22, private sector payrolls were increasing at a 253k monthly pace, but in the latest November update private sector job growth was 145k – slowing more than 100k jobs per month. Government payrolls meanwhile increased from a 31k pace in Dec’22 to 59k in Nov’23. The late normalization of government payrolls, particularly the public education sector, is largely responsible. The pace of growth in the public sector should slow. Normally public sector payroll growth is very gradual. It is the late return to normal post the COVID shutdown that is currently generating such strong public sector gains.”
  • They see AHE growth of 0.3% M/M and the u/e rate lifting to 3.8%.
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