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SocGen NBP: Expect Rates Unchanged

POLAND
  • In SocGen’s view, the dovish majority of the NBP will repeat October’s hold decision despite inflation not having peaked yet.
  • SocGen see it as unlikely that Governor Glapinski’s camp will now in this environment support rate hikes despite high inflation and (very probably) higher inflation forecasts by the NBP staff. Such a dovish outcome would be unsupportive for the PLN. SocGen would expect currency weakness even if a 25bp hike is delivered, as they would then expect the governor to call an end to policy tightening.
  • SocGen expect further mild accelerations in annual inflation in November (18.1%) and December (18.5%) before a major jump higher in early 2023 (20.2% in January, peak of 21.5% in February). Moreover, the labour market remains very strong, and a planned substantial increase in the minimum wage from January would further add to inflation pressures.
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