SocGen On Indonesia's Election

SocGen weighs in on the Feb 2024 election, noting that policy continuity is likely regardless of the outcome.

• "As current President, Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) is unable to run for a
  third consecutive term (the rules only allow two successive terms), the stage is now set
  for a three-way battle for the 2024 election between presidential and vice-presidential
  candidate duos: Anies Rasyid Baswedan/Muhaimin Iskandar, Prabowo Subianto
  Djojohadikusumo/Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Ganjar Pranowo/Mohammad Mahfud
  MD. The latest opinion polls put Prabowo Subianto in the lead after two previous
  unsuccessful bids vs Jokowi. Available information on the economic agendas of the
  candidates suggests that irrespective of the outcome, policy continuity is likely (i.e. a mix
  of populism and growth accretive measures) albeit the means to the end may differ."
• "In their election manifesto, Prabowo and Gibran have pledged to continue with Jokowi’s
  ‘downstreaming’ policy and investment in infrastructure. Jokowi made ‘downstreaming’ a
  cornerstone of his economic policy by spearheading legislation to ban the export of minerals and ensure that commodities mined in the country be processed domestically. In Prabowo’s manifesto, he also pledges to continue developing rural areas, providing direct cash aid and building low-cost homes. Both Prabowo and Ganjar have pledged to finish Widodo’s plans for a new capital city on Borneo, while Anies has not mentioned the project in his manifesto."