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SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

US TSYS

SOFR put trade gathered momentum as weaker underlying took cues from EGBs following hawkish ECB Holzmann comments: "SHOULDN'T COUNT ON RATE CUTS AT ALL IN 2024" Bbg. Better call trade on lighter volumes overnight. Projected rate cuts for the first half of 2024 receded slightly: January 2024 cumulative -1.1bp at 5.318%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -71.2% vs. -77% late Friday w/ cumulative of -18.9bp at 5.139%, May 2024 still fully pricing in 25bp cut now, cumulative -47bp at 4.859%. June 2024 cumulative -78.1bp at 4.548%. Fed terminal at 5.3275% in Jan'24.

  • SOFR Options:
    • Block 5,000 SFRU4 96.00/96.50 call spds 3.5 over 2QU4 97.12/97.62 call spds
    • 4,625 SFRH4 95.25 puts vs. 96.75/97.00 call spd ref 96.59
    • 5,000 SFRZ4 97.75/98.00 call spds ref 96.31
    • 6,000 SFRH4 95.00/96.00 1x2 call spds
    • 2,500 SFRM4 94.75/95.00 2x1 put spds
    • 7,000 SFRH4 95.12/95.37 1x2 call spds
    • 22,000 SFRM4 95.25/95.50/95.75 put trees
    • 10,600 2QJ4 95.75/96.00/96.25 put trees
    • 9,000 SFRH4 95.12 calls ref 94.98/0.32%
    • 2,000 SFRH4 95.00/95.12/95.25/95.37 call condors ref 94.98
    • 4,000 SFRZ4 96.50 calls ref 96.32/0.38%
    • 5,000 0QH4 96.87/97.37 call spds 9.5 ref 96.645/0.19%
    • 2,000 0QM4 96.00/96.25 put spds ref 96.765/0.09%
    • 2,500 SFRJ4 95.25/95.37/95.50 put flys
    • 2,000 SFRJ4 95.87/96.00/96.12 call flys ref 95.535
  • Treasury Options:
    • 3,000 wk3 TY 111.75 puts, 8 ref 112-09
    • over 9,000 TYG4 111 puts, 6 last
    • 4,000 TYG4 114 calls, 6 last
    • 2,000 FVG4 109.25 calls, 10.5 ref 108-19.75

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