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Soft GBP Data Provides Fresh Dovish Impulses

STIR

The weaker-than-expected run of UK monthly GDP and economic activity data provides fresh dovish impulses across the UK STIR space, with total BoE cuts through ’24 now marked at ~94bp, representing a fresh recent extreme.

  • More immediately, ~14bp of cuts are now priced through the end of the May MPC, with the first full 25bp cut more-than-fully discounted come the end of the June ’24 MPC.
  • SONIA futures show -0.25 to +6.0 through the blues, with the back of the reds and front of the greens outperfroming.
  • Conservative Party rifts continue to dominate local headline flow, while recent comments from Chancellor Hunt pointed to the “inevitably” of subdued growth while interest rates bring down inflation.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Dec-235.205+1.7
Feb-245.210+2.2
Mar-245.149-3.9
May-245.049-13.9
Jun-244.906-28.2
Aug-244.729-45.9
Sep-244.562-62.6
Nov-244.387-80.1
Dec-244.250-93.8
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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