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Softer French, Dutch CPI Undermine EUR Rally

FOREX
  • The single currency is among the poorest performers in G10 early Thursday, undermined by a series of lower-than-expected CPI prints from France and the Netherlands - releases which spelled downside risks vs consensus for the Eurozone CPI Estimate. As a result, the lower-than-expected Eurozone-wide figure failed to meaningfully move market in either direction, with as easier ECB rate pricing across 2024 persists across the morning.
  • The USD Index is the main beneficiary, rising through Wednesday's high and narrowing back in on the better levels of the week. The corrective bounce posted over the past two sessions coincides with the 14-day RSI flashing technically oversold - which may mean the market moves are deemed corrective at this stage.
  • GBP trades softer, with GBP/USD softer through the Wednesday low, however EUR/GBP managed to maintain the losing streak of nine consecutive lower lows. A break at current or lower levels would mark the first break below the 100-dma since May, a technical break that presaged a ~3% downleg across May and June.
  • The MNI Chicago PMI data takes focus going forward, with markets expecting the headline to improve slightly to 46.0 from 44.0 previously. Personal income/spending data also crosses as well as Canadian GDP. The speaker slate is similarly busy, as ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Fed's Williams and BoE's Greene are all set to make appearances.
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