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Solid Bounce In GDP, Markets Don’t Care

CANADA DATA
  • January GDP was in line with the prior flash, +0.2% M/M as goods (+0.8% M/M) helped compensate for services struggling with Omicron (+0.0% M/M).
  • Positive revisions to Dec were offset by softer revisions further back, pushing the annual rate down from +3.7% (originally 3.9%) to 3.5% Y/Y in Jan.
  • The new February flash meanwhile has GDP rising +0.8% M/M, the fastest print since October on relatively broad-based strength, led by manufacturing and mining/energy but also with notable increases in accommodation & food services and construction.
  • Net downward revisions but a solid bounce in February has seen little change in GoCs, with a 5-10Y led rally (3.5-4bps lower on the day), whilst USDCAD is unchanged from just prior to the release (+0.2% on the day at 1.2508) with US data largely in line.
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