Solid Tax Receipts So Far, Key Apr 15 Data Out Later Today (1/2)

The annual US federal tax deadline season is underway and is eyed for any impact on banking system liquidity as cash goes from the private sector into the Treasury's coffers. That's slightly different to the stakes last year amid the debt limit crisis when the intake was watched for signals of the "x-date" when the government's cash would be exhausted.

• So far, so good - related rate markets have been orderly, while early signs are that collections have been solid so far in the two key categories headed into the April 15 deadline: Friday saw $26.7B corporate receipts (vs $19.3B in the equivalent day in 2023), and $30.2B individual income taxes paid electronically (vs $30.7B in 2023). While these are largely unpredictable, those appear to have been on the high end of analysts' expectations.
• Cumulative receipts for the 5 days leading up to tax day are lagging the prior 2 years' tax days, but Friday's intake ($60.2B) was stronger than the equivalent in 2023 ($54.0B), albeit weaker than 2022's unusually large revenues ($70.2B).
• But of course April 15 is the key day for receipts: data will be available later today (April 16) at 1600ET/2100UK via the Daily Treasury Statement (link here).
• Seasonal tax revenues will continue to come in in the subsequent days; for example, a sizeable minority of individual tax payments are made by check, and will likely show up in the Treasury's account in Tuesday's data.