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Some Commodity Import Volumes Higher In July, But Trends Still Mostly Softening

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Looking at China import commodity volumes more closely, July delivered positive gains for most commodities outside of oil. Y/Y trends though remain fairly modest across key commodities, with oil losing further momentum in July and copper also slowing.

  • Coal was up to 46.21/t from 44.60 in June. Iron ore import volumes also rose to 102.8/t from 97.61 prior. Natural gas was also higher at 10.86/t from 10.43 in June.
  • Some food products were down, while oil was also off (to 42.3/t, versus 46.45 prior). Copper imports were close to steady in volume terms.
  • In terms of trends, the broader backdrop still looks like softening momentum. The first chart below is oil and LNG import volumes on a 3mma y/y basis. LNG is also moving off recent highs.
  • Metal and coal trends have been volatile, see the second chart below. Copper is now at its slowest pace in a number of years. Coal is painting a more positive picture.

Fig 1: China Oil Import Volumes Slowing

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Looking at China import commodity volumes more closely, July delivered positive gains for most commodities outside of oil. Y/Y trends though remain fairly modest across key commodities, with oil losing further momentum in July and copper also slowing.

  • Coal was up to 46.21/t from 44.60 in June. Iron ore import volumes also rose to 102.8/t from 97.61 prior. Natural gas was also higher at 10.86/t from 10.43 in June.
  • Some food products were down, while oil was also off (to 42.3/t, versus 46.45 prior). Copper imports were close to steady in volume terms.
  • In terms of trends, the broader backdrop still looks like softening momentum. The first chart below is oil and LNG import volumes on a 3mma y/y basis. LNG is also moving off recent highs.
  • Metal and coal trends have been volatile, see the second chart below. Copper is now at its slowest pace in a number of years. Coal is painting a more positive picture.

Fig 1: China Oil Import Volumes Slowing

Keep reading...Show less