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Some Commodity Import Volumes Higher In July, But Trends Still Mostly Softening

CHINA DATA

Looking at China import commodity volumes more closely, July delivered positive gains for most commodities outside of oil. Y/Y trends though remain fairly modest across key commodities, with oil losing further momentum in July and copper also slowing.

  • Coal was up to 46.21/t from 44.60 in June. Iron ore import volumes also rose to 102.8/t from 97.61 prior. Natural gas was also higher at 10.86/t from 10.43 in June.
  • Some food products were down, while oil was also off (to 42.3/t, versus 46.45 prior). Copper imports were close to steady in volume terms.
  • In terms of trends, the broader backdrop still looks like softening momentum. The first chart below is oil and LNG import volumes on a 3mma y/y basis. LNG is also moving off recent highs.
  • Metal and coal trends have been volatile, see the second chart below. Copper is now at its slowest pace in a number of years. Coal is painting a more positive picture.

Fig 1: China Oil Import Volumes Slowing

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

Fig 2: China Metal & Coal Import Trends

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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