SONIA Futures Edge Lower Alongside Peers, 54bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

SONIA futures follow core global FI peers lower.

• Contracts are flat to -3.5.
• BoE-dated OIS show just under 50/50 odds of a June cut.
• A full 25bp move isn’t quite fully discounted through the end of the August MPC, with ~54bp of easing showing through year end.
• ’24 contracts are within 1bp of Friday’s close.
• The death of the Iranian President hasn’t provided a tangible increase in the geopolitical risk premium.
• Meanwhile, weekend UK headline flow was confined to an uptick in the Rightmove house price index and news that a group of Conservative Party backbenchers has demanded a review of the BoE’s independence. Neither of those matters should be market moving.
• Outgoing BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent will deliver a ‘workshop’ on “New evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism work” this morning, headlines could start to filter out from 10:00 London.
• Elsewhere, the DMO will hold its quarterly consultation with investors/GEMM.