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SONIA Futures Little Changed, ~30bp Of ’24 BoE Cuts Priced

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA futures are just off lows, last +1.0 to -0.5. Bunds have also stabilised away from yesterday’s lows.

  • BoE-dated OIS is little changed vs. late Wednesday levels, showing 29.5bp of cuts through year end and ~50/50 odds of a cut come the end of the Sep MPC.
  • Local headline flow has seen PM Sunak suggest that a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for interest rate cuts.
  • Expect political matters to dominate UK headlines up until (and after) the July 4 election.
  • The UK calendar is essentially empty today, which will leave focus on headline flow and cross-market matters.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.201+0.1
Aug-245.129-7.1
Sep-245.072-12.8
Nov-244.962-23.8
Dec-244.904-29.6
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SONIA futures are just off lows, last +1.0 to -0.5. Bunds have also stabilised away from yesterday’s lows.

  • BoE-dated OIS is little changed vs. late Wednesday levels, showing 29.5bp of cuts through year end and ~50/50 odds of a cut come the end of the Sep MPC.
  • Local headline flow has seen PM Sunak suggest that a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for interest rate cuts.
  • Expect political matters to dominate UK headlines up until (and after) the July 4 election.
  • The UK calendar is essentially empty today, which will leave focus on headline flow and cross-market matters.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.201+0.1
Aug-245.129-7.1
Sep-245.072-12.8
Nov-244.962-23.8
Dec-244.904-29.6