July 31, 2024 06:54 GMT
SONIA Futures Rally, 54bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced
STIR
SONIA futures generally rally early today, last flat to +5.0.
- Meanwhile BoE-dated OIS shows ~13bp of cuts for tomorrow’s meeting and ~54bp of cuts through year end vs. ~13bp & ~52bp late yesterday.
- Softer-than-expected French inflation data extends the rally in recent trade.
- That comes after geopolitical risk supported core global FI markets as Hamas confirmed that its political leader was killed in airstrike in Iran.
- Softer-than-expected underlying Australian CPI measures may also be providing some support.
- Local headline flow continues to focus on fiscal matters, with Chancellor Reeves pointing to the need to hike taxes in the Autumn Budget.
- Still, Reeves has stressed that the party will stick to its election manifesto, as she promised not to raise national insurance, income tax or VAT. That will leave focus on CGT, after Labour looked to placate worry ahead of the election, focusing on closing tax loopholes, avoiding a tax grab from certain sectors.
- Little to note on the local calendar today,
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-24 | 5.070 | -13.0 |
| Sep-24 | 4.963 | -23.7 |
| Nov-24 | 4.787 | -41.3 |
| Dec-24 | 4.658 | -54.2 |
| Feb-25 | 4.490 | -71.0 |
| Mar-25 | 4.365 | -83.5 |
| May-25 | 4.217 | -98.3 |
| Jun-25 | 4.110 | -109.0 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.
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