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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSONIA Futures Rally Aggressively On U.S. CPI, 41bp Of BoE Cuts Showing Through Year End
The aggressive post-U.S. CPI move higher in SONIA futures extends further, with contracts last flat to +16.5 as the late reds and early greens lead the rally.
- SFIZ4 prints the highest level seen since May 22, while SFIZ5 is ~3.5bp away from closing the opening gap lower that was seen on the same day.
- BoE-dated OIS now shows ~41bp of cuts through year end vs. ~34bp ahead of the data.
- 19bp of cuts are priced through the Sep MPC, representing just over 75% odds of a cut through that juncture.
- Wider macro matters continue to dominate, with today’s monthly UK GDP data and political soundbites failing to impact markets.
- GBP STIR markets continue to trade with a high beta to broader core global STIR markets, with the BoE’s pre-election quiet period (outside of scheduled meetings) likely heightening GBP STIR sensitivity to macro matters.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 5.198 | -0.2 |
Aug-24 | 5.090 | -11.1 |
Sep-24 | 5.011 | -18.9 |
Nov-24 | 4.881 | -31.9 |
Dec-24 | 4.793 | -40.7 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.