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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
SONIA futures are +0.5 to -7.0 ticks through the blues, slightly underperforming Euribor counterparts.
- However, both BoE and ECB pricing has stuck within recent ranges through the day.
- BoE-dated OIS price ~46bps of easing through the remainder of ’24, with the ECB equivalent showing 45bps of additional easing (on top of the 25bp cut delivered in June).
- Yesterday’s ECB meeting largely affirmed the bank’s mild dovish bias, keeping the implied probability of a 25bp cut in September at around 80%.
- This week’s UK data has kept the chances of an August cut in the balance, with inflation a touch higher than expected but wages showing slight indications of softness.
- OIS price just over a 40% implied probability of a cut in August, which is generally the consensus view amongst sellside analysts. However, most forecasters concede that it remains a close call.
- There are no MPC speakers scheduled ahead of the August decision. As such, near-term BoE pricing could be sensitive to next week’s flash PMI releases, which will be the key focus.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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